50 years Qian of people is not too can imagine like now such annual rest probably one-third time of life of, also we today also hard imagine weekly rest five days of life, but if detailed to wants to, in machine intelligent big development of premise Xia, this actually is good of select, just really to wants to arrived such a see with very better of future, which of dangerous and cost I'm afraid is far extraordinary people imagine.
If a country chose tubes
Now we all take for granted knowing transistors are the right choice, but if you put the time back in the 60 's, that people will face a choice: whether to select tube or transistor. Tube is not without advantages, at least in mature technology, also good against nuclear weapons.
Then if there are two separate countries, one of the points in the development of the electronics industry, a choice of electron tubes, an electoral transistors, and are determined to go down, and that not in turn-around situations, what happens after 20 years?
Answer is that the country is likely to collapse as a result.
Down off of logic chain may will like such: tubes miniaturization to must degree Hou, reached limit, and transistor is according to Moore law of law flew; next this based differences will penetration to all and electronic devices related of industry, effect all electronic class products of cost price, eventually led to national average efficiency opened gap, in many products Shang lost advantage (TV,); again later transistor side also can development out computer and Internet, and in this two a new field Shang occupy opportunities, Competition form a qualitative difference.
Select the tube, perhaps because of cultural and military advantage and remain as independent, but economic failure is preordained, but this failure, which in turn will affect the people and social structures, will produce instability.
Transistor is similar to some other things will, to a large extent, affected the productivity of the average, such as: energy, production methods (Drucker think Taylor's production to enhance the production efficiency of larger than the technology itself). Can produce this kind of effect is not too much, but did have at least one, this is the intelligent machines previously mentioned multiple times in the article.
This is not any special new insights and with common sense, but are likely to be overshadowed by the new invention of new words.
More grounded metaphor is, five people you do live as a person living with others, that your income is, of course, only the latter one-fifth. If a country like this, that this country will get into trouble.
Forgotten knowledge
Saying things are not made up out of thin air, when Soviet-American rivalry did a similar thing, only uncertainty is how much is the disintegration of the Soviet Union was the result of select tube technology efficiency advantages.
From this thing we can reflect on many things, from the perspective of organizational introspection, may be obtained:
A dictatorial system more likely to lead to significant errors. Transistor in the West, after all, popular not because of some sort of top-down planning, but mainly because of choice.
In such a long development process, transistor this option completely suppressed in the Soviet Union, say that it is a special system of power.
But most should be recognized are not about systems, but about the power of technology. Science and technology are the first productivity seems to be a common sense, but we never actually in the process of development is also not much need for productivity of science and technology in the first place.
The past may lead to common sense in a State of oblivion and forget may lead to large errors in the future.
If you have seen the European Union's global ranking companies investment in research and development, that will see investment in domestic enterprises is low. I remember that in 2014 the EU domestic enterprises in the ranks of the highest-ranked Huawei is in 26th place, followed by PetroChina in 64th place, 7th the SAIC group, ranked 157 in the world.
Some of us are more familiar with foreign companies ranking goes like this: Samsung 2nd, Microsoft 3,Intel 4,Google 9th, 18th in Cisco, Qualcomm 25th, Apple's 35th, and all we know companies are roughly 50 former, which Fiat in 32nd place. Directly compared to others because of the nature of differences is not good, for example, it is difficult to compare oil and Microsoft. There was the easiest comparison is car SAIC 85th in the Fortune 500, BMW's 65th, but research ranked BMW 13th SAIC 157th.
This category only, will see relatively low domestic enterprises in terms of investment in research and development is confirmed.
No system it is difficult to accurately figure out what led to this situation, but you can make a rough guess: MIU MIU iPhone 5 Case
1, if you look from the past, and that this may be because of past success suggests that we do not need to do so.
Both drive business hot or after the Internet boom, technology is not a primary driver.
In the era before the Internet had a well-known debate took place, enterprises should take the road of trade and technology is technology, industry and trade, ultimately from the results was trade survived, history stands in the technical side of trade and industry, although most not from the trade go.
To the Internet age people began to realize the power of network effects, recognizing the value of entry, the network effect can be mapped to a platform strategy, focus on entrances are easy to value products.
Successful business model seems to suggest that spending on technology is not worth it.
2, if you look to the future, perhaps because many companies and not as ambitions as saying.
Technology in the future, only longing for the industry's future talent would want to do at this input. Profit from a short-term perspective, technical inputs are not cost-effective. Our economic cycle can be divided into two categories:
One is by money to property;
Which is made up of money money. Which is typical of various industries, which are financial.
Also have more financial and industry category, such as Li Ka-shing's operations here, even industries like service tool for wealth creation. More distances itself from this kind of investment in research and development of the latter.
In this regard, OHMAE said a long time ago a very meaningful, he said Chinese companies actually fit in a particular field of deep and thorough, and that seems to be not in accordance with China's national character.
If technology becomes more important
Recently saw several foreigners with determined and uncertain axis, optimistic, pessimistic, being a shaft divided into four quadrants, followed in various countries in this coordinate system, you will be placed on identifying Chinese and gloomy inside the quadrant.
This is actually a bit strange, because China's economy is booming, became the first big economy seems to be just around the corner. While for secondary, primary industries accounted for the small proportion of this economy, but most key areas, enterprises to leading industry upgrade, there is no country to lead this upgrade has more advantages. MIU MIU iPhone 5 Case
Problem may be in the points mentioned above.
What we are after this time around may be called the age of the Internet, whether it is a PC or mobile areas can quickly end the Internet is basically already have a specific pattern, the rest of the place is closely associated with the line, takes longer to penetrate cycle. Next wave may come, but no one can be entirely sure what it should be?
Question is who can say that weight in the next wave of technology will not become more important than ever, not died without technology? Wave under our rules of the game are likely to face replacement. This is a terrible thing, it's like physicists to study physics all his life, suddenly the cosmological constant change, Newton's laws, relativity, quantum mechanics becomes completely wrong.
If the energy, basic materials, such as machine intelligence affects the underlying link was opened the gap in productivity, that story of the vacuum tube and the transistor may one day be again.
If repeat tube story, what would become of the world?
Is five days a week after the explosion of productivity, work for two days, a life of leisure world; side is struggling to catch up, internal turmoil of the world. Perhaps seven days a week can break because of unemployment, but the inner meaning of the rest are markedly different.
Summary
Max Weber the Protestant ethic to echo capitalism, this looks very empty, but it's not. Cultural reaction to the economy in the face of the above problems, it is very important. The key here is that we have lost the enthusiasm of simple construction, lost the surreal things all together, simply easier for money to train short-term perspective, and the short-term view is precisely the crux of the problem mentioned above.
In any case, this is in fact a problem.
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